Uncertainties in Predicted Quantities Based on Measured Time Series of Dynamic Response

Dynamic response refers to noise and vibration excited by environment, propulsion, or equipment relevant for ships and offshore units. Consequences to structural integrity or comfort may be assessed through numerical analysis, model tests or full-scale measurements influenced by varying key quantities. These quantities are associated with uncertainties due to tools, methods and user experience including choices and assumptions made. ISSC2025 technical committee on dynamic response initiated a benchmark to investigate user introduced uncertainties in prediction of quantities like extreme response, frequencies, damping and fatigue damage from “true” measurement data from a storm event. The uncertainties in half hour predictions are significant by comparing half hour results and predictions from many users. This may serve as reference for user introduced uncertainties, which is often disregarded in design.