THE GEOPOLITICAL RECONFIGURATION OF GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS: TARIFFS, SANCTIONS, AND THE RISE OF FRIEND-SHORING

This paper examines the profound impact of contemporary geopolitical dynamics on global supply chains, focusing on the escalating use of tariffs, economic sanctions, and the emergence of friend-shoring strategies. Traditional economic models, often predicated on efficiency and cost minimisation, are increasingly challenged by a complex interplay of political, security, and strategic considerations. This study argues that recent global events, including heightened trade tensions and armed conflicts, are not merely transient disruptions but rather catalysts for a fundamental re-evaluation of international economic interdependence. This re-evaluation is manifesting in a deliberate shift towards supply chain resilience and security, often at the expense of pure economic efficiency. The paper delves into the mechanisms through which tariffs and sanctions reshape trade flows and investment patterns, analysing their intended and unintended consequences on both target and sender economies. Furthermore, it explores the burgeoning phenomenon of friend-shoring, where nations prioritise sourcing from geopolitically aligned partners to mitigate risks associated with adversarial relationships. Through a political economy lens, the paper assesses the implications of these trends for global trade governance, national industrial policies, and the future of globalisation. The paper complements the conceptual framing with a compact set of stylised facts on trade policy activism, sanctions-related trade rerouting, and logistics frictions, and explicitly discusses recent United States initiatives and their implications for friend-shoring. The analysis highlights critical policy-relevant issues, particularly for economies deeply embedded in global value chains, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by a more fragmented and politicised international economic order. This research contributes to the evolving discourse on de-globalisation and economic statecraft, providing a nuanced understanding of how geopolitical imperatives are redrawing the map of global commerce.